ALL TALK: WALL STREET WON’T SHUT UP ABOUT THE ELECTION but they’re not saying much. Consider this:
—> RECORD ‘ELECTION’ MENTIONS ON EARNINGS CALLS: S&P 500 companies mentioned "election" on 100 earnings calls from Sept. 15 to Oct. 31, the highest frequency since 2004. CNBC reports: “White-collar leaders are considering potential policy impacts on their businesses, while lamenting a general feeling of instability tied to the political season.”
—> INVESTORS STAY ON SIDELINES IN ‘TOO CLOSE TO CALL’ ELECTION. Bloomberg reports: “When it comes to actually putting down money in the stock market based on that, things are quiet. Investing pros know there’s a windfall to be made in calling the winner before it happens. Trouble is, this election is far too close for that, making the risk of a miss too high for many to stomach.”
—> AND THEN THERE’S THE FED. Investors are largely predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday. More on the Fed later on… keep reading…
hello, future. it’s me, kev.
…and this is a dispatch from the digital frontier. Your one-stop shop for markets, tech, and the future. The day is 308. The year is 2024. The planet is Earth. My name is Kevin Cirilli —> LinkedIn. We publish Sunday —> Thursday.
Two notes:
Did you see this on the Sunday homepage of the Wall Street Journal? Threat of New York Times Tech Worker Strike on Election Day Grows.
Yes, Running Marathons Can Make You a Better Person, via Bloomberg. I could’ve told ya that, Bloomy… :)
Back to the future...
SIGN OF THE TIMES: I Replied Stop to a Political Text Message. I Got 100 More, via WSJ.
SIGN OF THE SIGNS: US voters use trackers, cameras to deter political theft, via Reuters.
SIGN OF THE WHINES: The U.S. Cities Most irritated by neighbors’ political yard signs, via Geek Nexus. (Top three: 1. Fort Lauderdale… 2. Little Rock… 3. Pasadena.)
FEDERAL RESERVE
FEDERAL RESERVE SET TO CUT RATES FOR A SECOND TIME THIS YEAR. WASHINGTON (AP) — No one knows how Tuesday’s presidential election will turn out, but the Federal Reserve’s move two days later is much easier to predict: With inflation continuing to cool, the Fed is set to cut interest rates for a second time this year.
—> SHOWSTOPPER: Harris and Trump command market’s attention — but Powell may steal the spotlight, via Market Watch.
—> RATE CUT AMMO: Weak October jobs report gives Fed ammo for rate cut, via American Banker.
MTF CALENDAR
MONDAY | Marriott earnings… Palantir earnings… TUESDAY | ELECTION DAY IN AMERICA… Wednesday | Qualcomm earnings… CVS earnings… THURSDAY | FED DAY… interest rate decision / Fed presser / Fed FOMC statement… Warner Bros. earnings… FRIDAY | Sony earnings… Paramount earnings…
GEOPOLITICS
NORTH KOREA SENDS 10K TROOPS TO HELP PUTIN’S ILLEGAL WAR. U.S. officials estimate North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un has deployed 10,000 North Korean troops to help Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Source: WSJ.
—> CHINA’S ALLIES ARE SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL… Xi Jinping had cozied up to Russia and North Korea in a bizarre, illogical effort to undermine NATO and Ukraine’s allies. It not only didn’t work — NATO has grown in the last four years — but it’s now spiraling out of control.
—> WHAT CHINA WANTS? THE UPPER HAND IN NEW WORLD ORDER LED BY CHINA / RUSSIA / NOKO. “But that’s difficult to do when one ally has started a war in Europe, and another is accused of aiding the invasion.” Source: BBC.
QUOTABLE, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching. Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean military to start attacking Ukrainians as well.” Source: AP.
NOTABLE: Ukraine Official Accuses Google Maps of Giving Away Military Positions, via Newsweek.
JAM-ABLE: US-made jam-resistant drones helped Ukrainians cut through Russia EW, via Defense One.
SPACE WATCH
BY BRIG. GEN. (RET.) DAMON FELTMAN
Concern for Starlink’s Environmental Impact: SpaceX’s Starlink is the first of multiple mega-constellations of comm satellites for low earth orbit planned by several companies and countries. ABC News reports that a group of space researchers has asked the Federal Communications Commission to pause awarding new licenses to SpaceX until environmental impacts of their numerous launches and spacecraft deorbits can be better understood. While the article points only to SpaceX, the issues raised apply to all space programs.
—> Data is growing that shows unintended environmental consequences of the growing pace of global rocket launches and U.S. government requirements for its companies to deorbit old satellites. However, pausing until consensus can be built and mitigation plans created is unlikely. As mentioned, numerous companies and countries have their own plans for Starlink-like systems such as Amazon’s Kuiper, Telesat’s Lightspeed, the EU’s IRIS, and China’s Thousand Sails. (Source: ABC News)
Space-Based Data Centers: Data centers are a key component of cloud computing. There is a downside, though, namely the combination of physical space, electricity, and water these sites consume and infrastructure development required to supply them. Communities that once embraced hosting data centers have begun pushing back, adding restrictions to new development.
—> Space-based data centers may offer an alternative, especially given the abundance of solar energy and the lowering of spacecraft development and launch costs. Earlier this year, a group of European space companies led by Thales Alenia, released a report on the technical viability of such a capability. From this, the group is proposing a 2026 technical demonstration of needed in-space assembly, followed by build-out of a 10-megawatt system by 2036. (Sources: TechSpot, WTOP News)
How the Oil & Gas Industry can Lead Space Development: Both the U.S. and China have ambitions for sustained presence on the moon and expansion of our ability to explore the inner solar system.
—> Key to achieving these goals will be resource extraction, first to help with transport and sustaining human life (the moon appears to have ample water ice below its south pole), and then for economic purposes like Helium-3 and precious metals extraction. A piece in Medium this week highlights that the oil and gas industry here on Earth is a source of expertise for needed technology but the industry has been reluctant to support space programs. (Source: Medium)
— Each week, Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Feltman gives us a glimpse into our galaxy. Feltman was a career-long space operations officer, having commanded space units, led exercises and training at United States Space Command, and set budget and requirements priorities at Headquarters Space Force. Follow him on LinkedIn here.
ONE MORE THING:
THE ECONOMIC COST OF POOR EMPLOYEE MENTAL HEALTH, via Gallup:
Nearly one-fifth of U.S. workers (19%) rate their mental health as fair or poor, and these workers report about four times more unplanned absences due to poor mental health than do their counterparts who report good, very good or excellent mental health.
Projected over a 12-month period, workers with fair or poor mental health are estimated to have nearly 12 days of unplanned absences annually compared with 2.5 days for all other workers. Generalized across the U.S. workforce, this missed work is estimated to cost the economy $47.6 billion annually in lost productivity.
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Source: Variety.